Drew at BMEWS has a post up that takes a look at last year’s NICS background checks compared to current levels. It’s interesting to look at the numbers and see the huge increases since the election. He points out though that this November’s numbers were below a year ago for the first time in a year, and wonders if perhaps hunting season might have something to do with that, or if we’re seeing things taper off. I’m not thinking hunting season has much to do with it, since typically November checks are greater than October, except for this year. If hunting caused a dip it should show every year. Not sure of the exact reason, but we could start a mild panic among the GFW if all the gun bloggers began reporting on the increasing trend toward private purchases, which has swelled to the point of being visible in the decreasing NICS stats… what do you think?
Actually, NICS checks for November of 2008 set an all time record (1,529,635), so the fact that this November (1,223,252) didn’t surpass it isn’t all that surprising. The number for this November is still higher than all but 4 months of the past year, so firearms purchasers are still very active. I would expect them to continue too, as the inventory returns to normal and people can actually find what they want to buy, and the ammo to feed it. December 2008 was nearly as high as November though, so get ready for another round of headlines touting “Firearms Sales Down 20%”.
Ever wonder if the checks do any good? Drew has a couple other interesting facts in that post as well, so check it out.
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December 29th, 2009 at 10:27 am
Something to consider is that the number of NICS checks != the number of firearms sold through dealers.
Multiple guns can be purchased via one NICS check. With more guns in the stores, there may be more people making multiple gun purchases.
I don’t know how many other states do this, but here in SC if you have a CWP you don’t have to pass a NICS check. Just fill out the 4473 and show your permit and hand over the money and walk out with the gun. With the tremendous increase in concealed weapons permits, there could be a lot of people buying brand new guns without a NICS check.
Not that sales aren’t down, because they probably are after such a long stretch of increased sales (I hear some people actually want to spend some of their money on non-gun purchases, but that could just be an urban legend), however the numbers might reflect fewer guns being purchased than actually took place.
December 29th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Idaho is the same, as far as the CWP is concerned. No NICS required if you have it. And I have noticed the private sale ads have been much more active than before the election as well.